OK, so Alex Rodriguez finally reached career home run No.600 today after 46 at-bats since hitting No. 599.
It would be a nice accomplishment if not for his admittance of using performance enhancing drugs.
Now the real question is whether or not he can chase down the current record, which is also tainted by alleged PED use.
As of right now Rodriguez needs 162 homers to reach Barry Bonds. At age 35, Rodriguez probably has four or five years left in the tank of good baseball. After that it's anyone's guess as to how long he might play.
After 101 games Rodriguez has only managed 17 home runs, which is way behind the pace he would need to be at to reach 762 within the next four years.
Rodriguez needs to average about 35 to 40 home runs a season over the next four seasons to have any real chance of breaking that record. Now obviously the longer he plays the lower that average is going to be.
However, I just don't see Rodriguez being anything more than an average hitter after the next four years. His home run production has declined greatly this season, and he's only projected to finish with 26 home runs at his current pace.
He's obviously not getting any younger. Common logic would say that his home run production will gradually decline as he gets older. Therefore it is my belief that Rodriguez will come up a little short of whichever record you want to count.
In the end I see Rodriguez fizzling out somewhere around 700. I'm hoping that I'm right on my prediction because there's no way I want to see someone as egotistical as Alex Rodriguez be crowned the home run king.
If he does get the record, then there will be two asterisks at the top of the home run list in most people's minds.
Career Home Run Leaders
- Barry Bonds- 762
- Hank Aaron- 755
- Babe Ruth-714
- Willie Mays- 660
- Ken Griffey Jr.- 630
- Sammy Sosa- 606
- Alex Rodriguez- 600
- Frank Robinson- 586
- Mark McGwire- 583
- Jim Thome- 577
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